Predicting the Nobel short-list

And interesting article in The Scientist about how David Pendlebury, a citation analyst at Thomson Reuters, built a simple model to identify researchers who are candidates for winning a Nobel Prize. He used a simple citation and recognition model (the more someone is cited and the more prizes they have won, the more impact these researchers are thought to have.) The article is short and fun, and although the reporter Bob Grant notes the correct predictions, it would have been nice to see how often the model missed.


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